Maybe but...

Not really of much consequence, but while not everything is a 1977 computer there are a couple things that could be, and he mentions one (variant) in that article multiple times: Google glass.

If you could put on a pair of glasses that looked like regular eyeglasses but enabled some form of, augmented reality, then I suspect that would be very popular, and improved computing (and software) could make that real in the future.  The issue with Google Glass is that you are obviously wearing Google Glass, and unless you're a big fan of cosplaying as the Borg then it's probably not too appealing to you.

As a second aside, the author mentions that he thinks self-driving cars are going to be big, and while I agree that they could be possible in the future, it isn't the capability so much as implementation that I think will hold them back.  Getting people to give up control is more of a hindrance than making a vehicle capable of driving itself.  

I'm More Optimistic But It's Gonna Take Change

David Atkins seems a little oddly pessimistic in this post.  On the one hand he is very correct about the progress of technology and what it will be able to do in the future.  On the other he seems to ignore that a future in which all jobs are performed by machines is one in which either people must either all be enjoying immense prosperity or we are hiding from the robot death machines that are keeping insurrection in check (whether they are controlled by an AI or the future's 1% is kind of irrelevant).

While there are times I feel like the doomsday scenario is where we are headed, mostly I don't.  There are a few reasons for that, some positive some negative.  Let's start with the negative...

I don't know that we will really develop machines/software that can truly replace human creativity.  It could be our limit, or that we realize it is a bad idea (more likely the former).  I mean AI's will either enslave or kill us.  It is the sensible thing to do.  Whether our history is actually one of violence and destruction interspersed with periods of peace and prosperity, or the other way around doesn't matter much because our current trend is not good.  Particularly with respect to...

...Global warming, which will vastly change how we live on this planet over the coming decades.  Peoples will move, starve, thirst, die, and wars will start.  Or we will resolve all these issues via a combination of technological development and a vast, global political force for good that sees that that development is distributed to maximize the aid to humanity. (Stop laughing!)

On a more positive note there is the fact that if you replace all people in the workforce with machines: who buys the products the machines make?  In that world either governments/corporations would need to ensure that somehow the bulk of the population had the wherewithal to consume, or the wealthy could move to enclaves where the rabble couldn't kill them.

In reality I suspect that we will not approach any of these things (except global warming which we can't stop at this point and so will have to deal with).  If machines displace enough middle class the economy will suffer so there will be less impetus for further development.  There could be an asymptotic approach, but I think we would find there are local minima/maxima that would really require some heft to get past, and in our current political state we're nowhere close to having it.

I think in the US we will mostly be not as well off as we would like--with the wealthy being increasingly distant from the others--but still sufficiently comfortable that revolution doesn't really happen.

I'm not sure that is really optimism, but it isn't the downward spiral or killer robots of doom so it's something.

GPS Prevents You From Learning

I've had this thought about GPS (and know I've told people about it), and it's nice to see it validated by a real study.  If you use GPS navigation to get from point A to point B there's a really good chance that you will have no idea how you got there.  If, however, you look at a map (even mapped directions) and figure out where you are going.  You will then have to pay attention on the trip and will have a much better idea of where you are, how you got there, how to get back, and even how to get around problem spots that may occur.

I think GPS is great for navigation if you are someplace you are not likely to return (say on vacation, or a road trip), but it is a much better idea to get around without it as much as possible in the place you live.

WTF Swype?

I know that names (some more than others) and science words are likely to be unrecognizable, but after the gay marriage court win in PA yesterday, I was slide-typing "gay" and it was defaulting to "Gary" which, maybe, ok, except in the list of possible words it thinks I may have meant "gay" didn't show up at all.  I would guess that far more people text the word "gay" than "Gary" and I can't really imagine a non-bigoted reason that gay wouldn't even show up in the possible word list (and really should have been the default).

Another note: if I swipe "shit" or "fuck" I want to say "shit" or "fuck" not "s***" or "f***".  Maybe there's an argument for the censorship based on people (kids) misswiping something else, but f***ing stop it.

Why Bother With a Monitor?

Ok, sure, I know there are some people who require the much better resolution for work (graphical design, programming...), and for workplaces you can probably fill an office 17" monitors for a song, but for most [home] users, a dedicated computer monitor is a pretty dumb purchase.  For generally less money you can get a television, that can do the same things as a monitor, but also has built in speakers and doesn't require any extra hardware to play television/cable.  Since most computers/laptops now days have HDMI output, it's even a better proposition.

TV plus computer is a much better entertainment option than TV in one place, computer and monitor and speakers in another.  It's also a much better web entertainment option than web-enabled TVs or even Xbox/PSx--apparently these are better, but I can put a keyboard in my lap and a mouse on the sofa and use a computer online much easier. My only real complaint is Netflix: on the computer is seems more laggy and lower res, on the PS3 the interface is shit.

The Death of TV is Greatly Exaggerated

Or something.  Sony and Panasonic (and really Samsung too) definitely have some problems in their TV divisions, and it's a combination of several things happening the past few years, bad economy probably chief among them.

Televisions are not yet entirely commodity, however, and there is good room for growth in the future, provided some meaningful changes occur.  Large, lightweight, low energy screens have massive potential.  For gaming and watching movies, of course, but that's just what we do now.  Think about the benefits of having a wall sized screen, that when turned off, looked like a wall with some art on it, or even better a picture window Imagine if anyone could convert an entire wall to a screen that would, when powered "off" present as a picture window with a live view from somewhere else in the world...

To really do this at a level where every new house/apartment would be built with a display wall would require a few changes: lower energy use chief among them.  Really, though, we are pretty nearly there in terms of cost and screen capabilities.  The biggest issue is setup and control.  I would envision a bank of modular panels, each one an HD display, and any 2x2, 3x3 and maybe 4x4  of which could be grouped together to form a larger display, with other panels around the selected group being "environmental" (typically black, but with the occasional one on the web).  Separate panels make repair easier, and less costly, and greatly enhances versatility--watch TV on one side while someone browses the web on the other.  

The technology exists today to do this, but the energy costs and the installation costs really keep it from becoming viable.  To do this today would require lots of computing and graphics power--we want to be able to have these managed all together--though relays could help reduce the cost of external connections like game consoles.  Still, it's cheaper by far to build an in home theater.