Gas Milage Part II

Bush wants congressional authority to raise the efficiency standards for passenger cars for the first time since 1990. This is not bad. In fact it is long overdue. But it won't accomplish what the perception will be that it will accomplish for two reasons. One is that improving fuel efficiency of new cars won't have a measurable effect on total consumption (and gas prices) for years. This is because new cars are a small fraction of the total on the road. People do seem to be buying newer cars more often than before (ironic as new cars can run for longer than before) but the lag between new standards going into place and seeing an effect will be at least five years. It looks good, and Bush and the GOP is hoping that's enough for people to forget that nothing is actually being accomplished now.

The second reason that new standards won't accomplish anything is that the new standards will not be nearly high enough. Our government will NOT set standards that will make auto makers angry. They won't do it. Whatever the new standard is, it will be one that the auto industry is already meeting, or plans to be meeting in the near future anyway. Auto manufacturers are already improving fuel efficiency because it is a good marketing strategy for them. They are fully aware that for the first time since the late (19)70's US consumers at large are looking at gas milage when buying new cars. No manufacturer can expect to sell large numbers of a passenger car that doesn't get at least 30 mpg. Companies like Toyota and Honda are probably already well beyond whatever new standard will result. If the government is going to set a meaningful standard, then it will need to be one that auto-makers will balk at. The standard should also not be a fleet average, but a minimum requirement. Like at least 35 mpg for passenger vehicles and at least 30 mpg for light trucks and SUVs and at least 27 mpg for large trucks and SUV's. That will not happen.

Of course none of this has anything to do with whether or not the reported milage is truly representative or whether or not there will be anyway to force compliance. Now for a fantasy soluton: tax incentives to drive less. It would be a volunteer program in which every vehicle a person/family owns is checked for milage every year when they register. There is a $5000 tax incentive to drive less that is reduced by $1 for every 1-1.5 miles driven (1 for single 1.5 for married, no bonus for extra cars, children w/ licences, et cetera). I can already imagine the problems that could result from such a program, and I am pretty sure the cost would outweigh the benefit, but I would like it. In the end the only "fair" tax incentive is higher gas taxes which result in people driving less (and poor suffering more). Negative incentives are easier, cheaper (for government), and more productive than positive. It's a shame but true.